Section 518

Where we endeavor to stay positive about the 2011 Mets…

Archive for the ‘Jon Niese’ Category

Will the 2011 Rotation Include Pat Misch?

Posted by JD on November 29, 2010

It’s starting to look like it might (at least to me, anyway). Consider the rotation as it stands today: with Johan Santana recovering from surgery to start the season, Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey, and Jon Niese are the only established major league starters on the roster. In some ways, referring to this group as “established” is being kind: they each have questions to answer in 2011). Pelfrey can be solid (if unspectacular), but has been prone to extended streaks where he struggles to be average. Can he be more consistent next year? R.A. Dickey was a revelation this season, but he’s 36 and the 174 innings he pitched last season were a career high. Can he do it again? 2010 was Jon Niese’s first full season, and he’s struggled with injuries the past two season. Can he stay healthy long enough to contribute?

That being said, those three will anchor the rotation next season. John Maine has most likely played his last game with the team: I expect him to be non-tendered this week. Dillon Gee will be given a chance to win a spot in the rotation in Spring Training, as will Misch and probably Tobi Stoner. Misch is easily the most established (there’s that word again, used even more generously here) of the three, which can’t hurt. Add in Sandy Alderson’s (and Terry Collins’) comments about not wanting to rush prospects to the majors and that’s about it for in-house candidates.

There are, of course, outside candidates. Joe Janish of Mets Today put together a list of signable (read: not Cliff Lee) free agent pitchers last week, focusing on the risk/reward aspect of each. Having just returned from a trip to Atlantic City, I find some of these gambles attractive, particularly Chris Young. I wouldn’t be opposed to signing one of them to a one-year deal and hoping for the best, but I don’t know if it’s possible. I’ve read in many places that the Mets’ off-season budget may be limited to $5 million. If that’s the case, these players may not fit in the Mets’ budget (even accounting for the discount generated by their injury histories). I mean, it could happen, but should the Mets really gamble on a pitcher with a history of injuries when their budget is so limited?

The next few days will see a number of pitchers hit free agency as the December 2nd non-tender deadline approaches. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors has put together a list of non-tender candidates. While there are some interesting names for the bullpen, the starting pitchers leave something to be desired. I’ve always liked Brian Bannister and he might benefit from making half his starts at Citi Field, but he’s always struggled with major league hitters and he’s been injury prone recently, too. I wouldn’t have taken a shot at Zach Duke before he was traded to the Diamondbacks, making that moot anyway. Jeff Karstens? Kyle Davies? I guess, at the right price. But it’s debatable whether their better than Misch or not.

Acquiring a starter via a trade is also a possibility. The Mets could possibly trade Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran (Beltran for Daisuke Matsuzaka might make some sense, I guess). Personally, I remain convinced that the Mets should refrain from trading either of those players until June, at the earliest. Their value is what it once was, but there’s still a reasonable chance that they can recapture most of it: it simply makes no sense to move them now. We’ll see.

In an effort to be fair to every candidate, I have to mention that Oliver Perez currently has a 10-inning scoreless streak over his last two starts in the Mexican Winter League. Whatever.

So, there you have it: based on the known available options (and their costs), Pat Misch will very likely be the fifth (or possibly even the fourth) starter in the rotation next year. Bill James predicts Misch’s 2011 season as: 23 games (12 starts), 75.0 innings pitched, 82 hits, 50 strikeouts and 18 walks (2.78 K/BB ration) for a 4.20 ERA (4.19 FIP). Obviously, the counting numbers would be higher if Misch won the job out of spring training, but a 4.20/4.19 ERA/FIP for less than $1 million isn’t that bad. It’s less than optimal, but budget constraints make it one of the more plausible options available.

Posted in Johan Santana, Jon Niese, Mets, Mike Pelfrey, Offseason Moves, Oliver Perez, Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins, The Rotation | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Innings Limit for Niese?

Posted by JD on August 21, 2010

Hat tip to Mets Police for bringing this NY Post article that indicates that the Mets may limit Jon Niese’s innings pitched (one good turn deserves another: thanks for linking to my Jason Bay post yesterday guys). It’s a sound move, especially as the Mets continue to tread water at the .500 mark. While I’m quite certain the “Future Hall of Famer” reference came with tongue firmly planted in cheek, Niese is nonetheless a big part of the Mets future. Running up his innings pitched total may or may not impact his future performance (the so-called Verducci Effect has come under scrutiny in the past year and it turns out it may not be the greatest predictor of future health), but why take the chance in what is turning out to be a non-competitive season?

Some minor quibles with Mike Puma’s article: while Niese did pitch 164 innings in the minors in 2008, his total innings pitched that season was actually 178 (when you factor in his time on the major league roster). Also, he pitched a total of 120 innings last season (factoring in those pesky thirds of an inning) and he’s logged 139 innings this season (he made one start for Buffalo in April).

That being said, there are 40 games left in this season. Without studying the current arrangement of the rotation, let’s assume that would leave him with eight starts. He probably wouldn’t throw five complete games, but if you assume that he throws five quality starts, that would result in him throwing 187 total innings this season (five seven-inning starts would give him 195, five five-inning starts would give him 179).

As you can see, there’s some maneuverability available for the Mets here. Personally, I’d let Niese make his next three starts (running him up to about 160 innings), call up Dillon Gee to take his place in the rotation, and spot Niese out of the bullpen to let him finish somewhere around 170-175 innings pitched. Do I trust Jerry Manuel and Dan Warthen to behave accordingly? Of course not.

Given his recent injury history and the Mets’ fall from contention, the plan to limit Niese’s innings pitched is sound. How the Mets go about executing it (if they do it at all) bares watching. Here’s hoping it all works out: I look forward to watching Jon Niese pitch for the Mets for years to come.

Posted in Jerry Manuel, Jon Niese, Mets | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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