Section 518

Where we endeavor to stay positive about the 2011 Mets…

Posts Tagged ‘Pedro Feliciano’

One-Out Wins: More Than You Needed To Know

Posted by JD on May 7, 2011

Ryota Igarashi picked up his second win last night, both of which he received after retiring just one hitter (he almost had a third earlier in the season, but the stars didn’t line up that night). This served to remind me that nothing highlights the uselessness of pitcher wins as a statistic more than the one-out win. Think about it: the other pitchers on the staff combined to get 26 (or more) outs and one pitcher comes in, records one out, and gets all the credit (and I didn’t even mention the offense’s role, which is obviously more important as well). It’s a loophole, but boy does it highlight how silly the stat is.

That being said, let’s take a look at one-out wins using Baseball Reference’s Play Index tool. First, the obvious: the one-out win is much more common than it once was, most likely due to the heightened focus on pitch counts and increased specialization in the bullpen. There were 545 one-out wins from 2001 through last night, 431 in the ’90s, 233 in the ’80s, 144 in the ’70s, 142 in the ’60s, and 150 prior to that (the Play Index goes back as far as 1919, so that’s a little more than 40 years). Seeing as how there were more one-out wins in the past 20 years than in the previous 70, it should come as no surprise that most of the leaders in this fluky stat are all from that era. In an interesting coincidence, quite a few of them have ties to the Mets.

11-15 (tie, six one-out wins): Hector Carassco, Alan Embree, Al Hrabosky, Scott Schoenewies, Mike Stanton.

8-10 (tie, seven one-out wins): Buddy Groom, Joe Hoerner, Dan Plesac.

2-7 (tie, eight one-out wins): Paul Assenmacher, Dennis Cook, Pedro Feliciano, Goose Gossage, Felix Heredia, Scott Radinsky.

1 (nine one-out wins): Jessie Orosco.

Quite a few LOOGY-types up there, which makes sense when you think about it. They tend to come in two face a key lefty hitter late in close games, so it figures that they’d be the pitcher of Even Jesse Orosco’s one-out wins (largely) fit this pattern: eight of the nine came in the ’90s after he’d transitioned from closer to LOOGY. Even the one that he got with the Mets came in 1986, a year he split the closing duties with Roger McDowell. Goose Gossage and some of the others don’t fit this usage pattern, but I think it’s safe to say that luck played as much of a role in their one-out wins as it did for the LOOGY’s

One final point for the record: only one of Pedro Feliciano’s one-out wins came on a Ryan Howard strikeout. I would have bet money that the number would have been higher given that he’s faced Howard in 38 plate appearances, but I guess that’s why I shouldn’t gamble. I was in attendance at CBP that day, so that was sweet.

Posted in Flushing Frivolities, Mets, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Moving On

Posted by JD on November 22, 2010

It’s over, it’s done, let’s turn the page (please). Now that the Mets have named Terry Collins as their next manager (and announced that Chip Hale and Dan Warthen will remain on as the third base and pitching coaches, respectively), we can move on to a (much, much) more important matter: building a roster for 2011. There are a couple of key dates coming up:

  • November 23: Last date to offer salary arbitration. In the Mets’ case, this applies to Pedro Feliciano. Despite the fact that Feliciano can expect to be awarded a contract of about $4 million in the arbitration process, the Mets should offer it to him. Yes, rumors have swirled that the Mets’ offseason budget may be limited to $5 million, and at 35, Feliciano’s an increasing injury risk. But he is a premium left-handed reliever who would likely command a multi-year deal from another team (the Yankees are already rumored to be interested), so the odds of him accepting would seem to be slim. And if he does? Those same teams might be willing to trade for him. Either way, the Mets should be able to turn Feliciano into some sort of longer-term asset.
  • December 5: Last date to outright a player before the Rule 5 draft. The Rule 5 draft is designed to prevent clubs from stockpiling talent in the minor leagues by allowing other clubs to select players who are not on the 40-man roster. The Mets have already made some moves in this area, outrighting Jesus Feliciano, Raul Valdes, Mike Hessman, Omir Santos, and Eddie Kunz, waiving Joaquin Arias, and adding Manny Alvarez, Zach Lutz, Jordany Valdespin, Josh Stinson, and Armando Rodriguez. There will be other moves made, as John Maine, Luis Hernandez, Oliver Perez, and Luis Castillo still have roster spots.
  • December 6: The Rule 5 draft. This will be interesting. Considering their budget limitations, the Mets will probably make a few picks. I expect them to take a pitcher or two to compete for the open spots in the rotation or bullpen. It’s my goal to go through the other 29 rosters and identify a few targets before the draft but, given my recent track record, there’s a great chance it won’t happen. But I’ll give it a shot. Keep in mind that any players picked must stay on the major league roster the entire year or they get offered back to their former organization (for $25,000).

As an added bonus, there will likely be a free agent signing or three sprinkled in (though maybe not until January). We’re not going to see big signings, but we might see the next R.A. Dickey sign in the coming weeks. This is the fun part of the offseason, watching the moves that shape the roster for next year. Anything is better than watching beat reporters and fans try to read the tea leaves of a managerial search, then endlessly venting over the results (accurately depicted here). We can’t turn the page fast enough, in my opinion.

Posted in Mets, Offseason Moves, Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

133 Days

Posted by JD on October 3, 2010

Season finales have their own unique feel, at least to me. 161 games have been played and a lot of passion has been spent. Second guessing the manager’s (and General Manager’s) decisions became a way of life but now, for one day at least, it becomes irrelevant. If Jerry Manuel wants to use Pedro Feliciano to face Adam Kennedy instead of saving him for Adam Dunn, well, who cares? What’s the point in getting worked up about it if this is the last game he’ll manage for the Mets?

Today’s game reminds me of a similar situation, not that long ago. I was at the final game of the 2004 season (also a Sunday, also October 3rd), when Art Howe was the resident “dead man walking”. GM Jim Duquette was planning on letting Howe finish the season, but word got out that he would be fired (sound familiar?). Duquette was forced to announce Howe’s dismissal on September 16th, and Howe had to manage the final two and a half weeks of the season knowing that he would be out of work.

It was a lost season: the Mets would finish 71-91. Though there were some positives (the Mets swept the Yankees at Yankee Stadium and had a winning record against their cross-town nemesis rival for the first time), it was mostly negative: there was the infamous Scott Kazmir/Victor Zambrano deal as well as the botched experiment with Mike Piazza at first base. By all rights, game 162 should have been a formality, one last exercise in futility. Maybe it was. Maybe I read too much into what I saw that afternoon, but it felt like more than that.

There was a new era on the horizon: the Mets were clearing the decks, preparing for a new beginning (Omar Minaya would be hired shortly). But there was also a lesson, a hidden message for us all…we’ll get to that in a minute.

But first, the game itself. Art Howe wasn’t the only Met who would be leaving: John Franco was appearing in his final game. The writing was on the wall: Franco was done with the Mets, and he knew it. Howe did the right thing: Franco entered the game after a nice video tribute in the top of the eighth, replacing Heath Bell. He pitched a third of an inning, gave up a single to Termel Sledge, and got Ryan Church to fly out to Todd Zeile, who was catching that day for the first time since 1990.

Zeile had announced his retirement earlier in the week and Howe chose to let him go out the way he came in. That was the day that I first heard that Zeile was a movie producer, and it was a day that he’d remember forever. Not only did he record the out on the final pitch that John Franco threw for the Mets, but he hit a three-run home run in his final at-bat in the bottom of the sixth. It really was a special moment, the future producer had a real Hollywood moment.

There were other nice moments for the Mets in that game, too. Joe Hietpas had his Moonlight Graham moment and rookie David Wright hit his 14th home run, a two-run shot off John Patterson in the bottom of the third. It was a generally uplifting game: a negative era in Mets history was ending and the future, though uncertain, looked bright. This was highlighted by the unfortunate fate awaiting their rivals that day: the Montreal Expos.

You see, that was the Expos’ final game. While the Mets were ending a lost season, Montreal fans were mourning the loss of their team. Those of us in attendance knew we were seeing a major league team’s death. The franchise’s fate was sealed: they were shortly to become the Washington Nationals (coincidentally, the Mets’ opponent in today’s finale). Really, we were watching the Expos being taken off of life support.

There was a decent contingent of Expos fans in attendance. They scattered a few “Let’s Go Expos!” chants throughout the game, but there was a moment in the top of the ninth where they rallied one last chant. I can’t speak for the other fans in attendance that day, but I found it a remarkably poignant moment. Here was a group of fans in a foreign stadium, watching the final moments of their favorite team, saluting them for the final time.

That moment remains fresh for me today. While we think about how poorly our team has played this year, we can look forward 133 days till pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie again. We’ll have a new General Manager, a new manager, new players. Our team, no matter how poorly managed, will get another chance to redeem itself. On February 13, 2011, the voluntary reporting date for pitchers and catchers, the Mets will once again take the field. Montreal fans can only wish they could say the same about the Expos.

Bad Mets baseball is better than no Mets baseball, and the 2010 season comes to an end today. Let’s enjoy what we have while we can while looking forward to new memories in the coming season. 2011 begins tonight, but today, let’s enjoy watching David Wright, Jose Reyes, Josh Thole, Ike Davis, Mike Pelfrey, and all the others write the final chapter of the 2010 Mets. Hopefully, they’ll send us off on a positive note.

Posted in Jerry Manuel, Mets | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Citi’s Dimensions

Posted by JD on September 26, 2010

I was out of pocket the past few days and missed the drama in Philly, what with Chase Utley’s slide (didn’t see it, so I won’t pass judgment), Carlos Beltran’s reaction (and his homers from both sides of the plate), and the Mets taking a series from the Phillies. Sure, there’s not much drama left in this season for the Mets. But it’s always nice to see them beat the Phillies, even if it doesn’t mean much in the bigger picture.

I did happen to catch Adam Rubin’s post about the dimensions of Citi Field. In the latest installment of what has become a recurring debate, the Mets announced last week that they are not planning to make changes to Citi Field’s outfield walls. Personally, I think that’s for the best.

While I understand the frustration of Mets fans who’ve seen their share of long fly balls die in outfielder’s gloves (or bounce off the wall for a double), the expected pitching staff for 2011 can probably use all the help it can get. Right now we’re looking at Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese, and a couple of question marks in the rotation (I can’t bring myself to believe that Johan Santana will be ready for Opening Day, and he’ll need some time to find himself once he returns to health). Add in some degree of change in the bullpen, whether it’s a new closer (they’re going to try to shed Francisco Rodriguez), a new lefty reliever (Pedro Feliciano is not a lock to return), or general turnover, and there will be plenty of uncertainty on the 2011 staff. The deep outfield will be a great help for the staff, and tinkering with it now doesn’t seem to help their chances to succeed.

Home runs are exciting and are a tremendous boost to any offense, but they can just as easily crush a team that surrenders too many. Maybe the increased run production will offset any additional runs allowed, but at this point I don’t think the percentages favor it enough for the Mets to risk making any changes. They have to address plenty of variables as they prepare they’re 2011 roster: there’s no need to add another to the list.

Posted in Citi Field, Mets | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Lefty Luxuries

Posted by JD on August 24, 2010

All of the waiver-wire action of the past few days (Rod Barajas, Johnny Damon, and Manny Ramirez leap to mind) got me wondering whether the Mets will make any more moves before the August 31st deadline. The Mets have already passed a few players through waivers successfully, but I don’t anticipate any movement on them due to their price tags (Carlos Beltran) or limited value (Jesus Feliciano, Mike Hessman, Luis Castillo, Jeff Francoeur, and Oliver Perez).

There are, however, two other players on the roster who should be placed on waivers immediately: Pedro Feliciano and Hisanori Takahashi. Don’t get me wrong: both players are useful cogs in the bullpen. But given their respective ages and price tags, they are luxury items that aren’t necessary for a .500 team that’s fallen out of the playoff race.

Ted Berg addressed potentially trading Pedro Feliciano back in July. He was right then, and he’s still right today (the only difference being that the market has significantly narrowed due to the waiver requirement). Feliciano is earning $2.9 million and can expect a raise in the arbitration process this season. While the Mets almost never go in front of an arbitrator, but you can expect them to settle with Pedro somewhere between $3.5 and $4 million. Heck, the Mets signed Scott Schoeneweis to a 3 eyar/$9 million deal just three seasons ago, and I’m sure a) Feliciano is a better pitcher, and b) the market has gone up since then. Can the Mets really afford to pay a lefty-specialist that much when they have so many other roster spots to address?

Takahashi is only making $1 million and to the best of my knowledge (read: the Mets’ page on Cot’s Baseball Contracts), he won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2013, meaning the Mets can retain him until that time while giving him only minimal raises. However, he’ll be 36 next season and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to match his current level of success (a term I use loosely: his 98 ERA+ indicates that he’s a slightly below-average pitcher). Sure, there may not be a market for Takahashi, but it can’t possibly hurt to gauge other team’s interest.

As for Feliciano, there’s an additional wrinkle to consider: MLB Trade Rumors is predicting that he’ll qualify as a Type B free agent. As such, if the Mets offer him arbitration and he declines, they’ll receive a sandwich pick in next seasons amateur draft, which will likely be worth more than any prospect they could land after putting him on waivers. But, there’s definitely a market out there for him. For instance, the Yankees would probably be interested in adding a solid lefty-specialist, and that might force Tampa, Boston or even Texas or Minnesota to be interested, if only to their potential playoff opponents from adding to their arsenal. Heck, I could even see the Phillies claiming Feliciano just to ensure that he doesn’t land on the Braves and wreak his usual havoc on Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, and Chase Utley in the playoffs. The Mets might luck into landing a prospect who can help them more cheaply, but if they don’t find a return that they’re interested in, they can still pull him back from waivers. There’s really no downside (aside from bruised egos, I suppose).

There are several scenarios in play and the Mets should at least take this opportunity to make Feliciano and Takahashi available to other teams.  Get a gauge of their value, see what they’re worth to the contending teams in both leagues. It’s possible that they’ve been placed on waivers and it hasn’t been leaked yet (waivers are intended to be confidential until another team claims a player), but if they haven’t yet, there’s no real excuse for it. They should be making every attempt to maximize their available assets.

Posted in Mets, Trades | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

 
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