A Look At The Mets Stolen Base Successes (And Failures)

Last week, Sandy Alderson commented that “stolen bases are a footnote”. He’s right, though as James Kannengeiser of Amazin Avenue noted “the Mets have been an elite base stealing machine over the last few seasons.” Actually, Kannengeiser’s analysis thoroughly covers the issue (that’s not the first time I’ve said that about his work) and I pretty much agree with every word of it, especially his conclusion.

But it got me thinking about which Mets players were the most efficient base stealers. So, I went over to Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index tool to take a deeper dive. Here’s a few highlights of what I found:

• 60 Mets have a perfect base stealing percentage. 55 of them stole 4 bases or less, including Tom Seaver (4-4), Kelly Stinnett (4-4), Josh Thole (2-2), Sid Fernandez (1-1) and Ron Darling (1-1).
• The five players who were 5-5 or better: Paul LoDuca (5-5), Shane Spencer (6-6), Dan Norman (8-8), Jason Bay (10-10) and Manny Alexander (11-11).
• The player with the best “non-perfect” stolen base success rate: Chico Walker, who went 21-22 in 222 games over the 1992-93 seasons. I liked Chico, because his name often reminded me of the immortal Chico Escuela.
• Shawn Green is the only other Met to exceed a 90% success rate, going 11-12 in 164 games over the 2006-07 seasons. He also owns a very, very expensive house.

Now, let’s look at some arbitrary thresholds (current Mets in bold text):

• Highest success rates, minimum 25 attempts: Bob Bailor, 40-46 (.870), Carlos Beltran, 97-113 (.858), Roberto Alomar, 22-26 (.846), Kaz Matsui, 22-26 (.846), Cliff Floyd, 32-38 (.842).
• Lowest success rates, minimum 25 attempts: Elliot Maddox, 6-28 (.214), Ed Kranepool, 15-42 (.357), Jerry Grote, 14-34 (.412), Jeff Kent, 12-28 (.429), Felix Millan, 11-25 (.440).
• Highest success rates, minimum 50 attempts: Carlos Beltran, 97-113 (.858), Lenny Dykstra, 116-141 (.823), Gregg Jeffries, 63-77 (.818), Luis Castillo, 55-68 (.809), Kevin McReynolds, 67-83 (.807).
• Lowest success rates, minimum 50 attempts: Joel Youngblood, 39-75 (.520), Wayne Garrett, 33-59 (.559), Rey Ordonez, 28-50 (.560), Bernard Gilkey, 29-50 (.580), Lenny Randle, 47-79 (.595).
• Highest success rates, minimum 100 attempts: Carlos Beltran, 97-113 (.858), Lenny Dykstra, 116-141 (.823), Jose Reyes, 331-416 (.796), Roger Cedeno, 103-135 (.778), David Wright, 138-180 (.767).
• Lowest success rates, minimum 100 attempts: John Stearns, 91-142 (.641), Cleon Jones, 91-139 (.655), Tommy Agee, 92-139 (.662), Lee Mazzilli, 152-223 (.682), Frank Taveras, 90-131 (.687).
• Success rates, minimum 200 stolen bases: Jose Reyes, 331-416 (.796), Howard Johnson, 202-265 (.762), Mookie Wilson, 281-371 (.757), Darryl Strawberry, 191-266 (.718), Lee Mazzilli, 152-223 (.682).

Three observations came to me:

1. The late 60′s-early 70′s Mets ran a little, but without much success.
2. The 80′s Mets ran a lot, with a fair amount of success.
3. The current team has the three most successful runners in franchise history, plus Castillo (.809) and Angel Pagan (55-71, .775).

That final point brings me back to Kannengeiser’s post. I share his confidence in Alderson & Co., but I worry just a bit that this edge will be blunted. Time will tell, but it will most definitely be an interesting sub-plot to follow this season.

The All-Powerful

Like many of my best-intentioned plans, my countdown to Spring Training quickly fizzled. Not only is Amazin’ Avenue doing it better (and with pictures!), it turns out that I couldn’t even get the actual number of days right! That was particularly humbling. It turns out that pitchers and catchers are due to report two whole days earlier than I thought. So, there goes that idea.

That being said, I’d written up a couple of entries in advance, so I’m going to trot them out over the next few days. Here is what would have been my day twenty entry: Kurt Abbott.

——–

Drafted by the Oakland A’s on my twelfth birthday, the former 15th round pick joined the Mets as a free agent on January 26, 2000. Abbott would appear in 79 games for the Mets that year, hitting .217/.283/.389 in 173 plate appearances. His -0.5 rWAR (B-R.com) tied him with Matt Franco and Rickey Henderson for worst on the team, non-Rey Ordonez division (to be fair, Ordonez was lost for the season after only 29 games). So, he’s got that going for him.

It was in that year’s World Series that I (drunkenly) gave him the nickname of the All-Powerful Kurt Abbott. I was watching game one at my Yankee-fan friend’s house, surrounded by his Yankee-fan family and Yankee-fan friends, the lone Mets fan in the room. The Yankees had taken a 2-0 lead on a David Justice double in the bottom of the sixth, but the Mets rallied to take a 3-2 lead in the seventh (shockingly, Bubba Trammell was prominently involved). The Yankees sent Mariano Rivera to the mound in the top of the ninth to hold the fort. He promptly retired Jay Payton, but plunked Todd Pratt.

With a man on first, one out, and Mike Bordick due to hit, Bobby Valentine tapped Kurt Abbott to pinch hit. I was not overwhelmed by optimism. In an effort to get ahead of (what I thought) was an inevitable double-play grounder, I said something like “the All-Powerful Kurt Abbott will save the day”. Abbott promptly lined a double to right field to advance Pratt to third. Neither Timo Perez nor Edgardo Alfonzo could capitalize on the opportunity and the Mets failed to score.  The Yankees went on to win the game (and ultimately the World Series), but a nickname was born.

Fun Fact: Kurt Abbott is a cop in Florida. That’s him on the left, giving the hand to a perp he had just apprehended.

Photo courtesy of Alex Boerner, TC Palm

Flushing Frivolity – 12/15/09

Beware the Ides of December! And beware of me making that joke each month.

Anyway, today’s Frivolity picks up the thread from yesterday’s: low OPS+. As in, who had the lowest ever? Back to Baseball Reference I went and this is what I got (minimum 502 plate appearances):

Rk               Player OPS+  PA Year Age
1             Jim Levey   24 567 1933  26
2       Skeeter Newsome   33 508 1936  25
3          Art Scharein   34 522 1933  28
4          Bill Hallman   36 525 1901  34
5          Billy Hunter   37 604 1953  25
6          Leo Durocher   37 520 1937  31
7        John Gochnauer   37 506 1902  26
8            Hal Lanier   38 518 1968  25
9           Boze Berger   41 523 1938  28
10           Hal Lanier   42 557 1967  24
11            Jim Levey   42 540 1931  24
12      Alfredo Griffin   43 502 1990  32
13      Sparky Anderson   43 527 1959  25
14          Doc Farrell   43 533 1928  26
15          Neifi Perez   44 585 2002  29
16          Tim Johnson   44 510 1973  23
17          Tommy Helms   44 605 1970  29
18          Ski Melillo   44 589 1934  34
19          Fred Raymer   44 522 1905  29
20      Freddie Maguire   45 544 1931  32

Makes Rey Ordonez look like Babe Ruth, no? And I guess we know at least part of the reason that Leo Durocher and Sparky Anderson got into managing. Anyway, I regard 1947 as the start of the modern era and only eight of the player-seasons on our list played in it, so let’s start with that date and see what the results are for the modern era:

Rk               Player OPS+  PA Year Age
1          Billy Hunter   37 604 1953  25
2            Hal Lanier   38 518 1968  25
3            Hal Lanier   42 557 1967  24
4       Alfredo Griffin   43 502 1990  32
5       Sparky Anderson   43 527 1959  25
6           Neifi Perez   44 585 2002  29
7           Tim Johnson   44 510 1973  23
8           Tommy Helms   44 605 1970  29
9            Hal Lanier   46 537 1969  26
10         Clint Barmes   47 535 2006  27
11          Mike Caruso   47 564 1999  22
12         Brian Hunter   48 589 1999  28
13         Billy Ripken   48 559 1988  23
14          Ozzie Smith   48 649 1979  24
15          Marty Perez   49 518 1972  25
16       Craig Robinson   51 506 1974  25
17           Hal Lanier   51 556 1965  22
18       Dick Schofield   51 548 1965  30
19         Angel Berroa   52 503 2006  28
20      Zoilo Versalles   52 626 1967  27

For the record, Rey Ordonez’ 53 OPS+ in 1998 is 23rd on this list. Not the worst of all-time, but definitely not far from it. I always knew he struggled with the bat, but I had no idea that it was that bad.

Flushing Frivolity – 12/14/09

Sometimes, researching a Frivolity can lead to interesting discoveries. Other times, not so much. That’s the case for today’s Frivolity: lowest OPS+ in a season during which the player qualified for a batting title. I’ll tell you right now: it’s not a shocker. In fact, the same two players have the five worst OPS+ seasons and seven of the top 10. That would be Doug Flynn and Rey Ordonez.

Rk               Player OPS+ Year Age
1           Rey Ordonez   53 1998  26
2            Doug Flynn   54 1981  30
3           Rey Ordonez   60 1996  24
4            Doug Flynn   61 1979  28
5            Doug Flynn   62 1978  27
6           Rey Ordonez   64 1999  27
7          Roy McMillan   64 1965  35
8           Rey Ordonez   67 2001  29
9         Jose Vizcaino   67 1994  26
10         Hubie Brooks   68 1983  26

Hubie Brooks holding down the 10 spot surprised me, but it was no shock to see Flynn and Ordonez appear so often. Those are some shockingly low OPS+ though. It’s criminal that these guys got as many at bats as they did, regardless of how good they were defensively.